Ravens at Falcons: SNF Preview and Picks
The card went 3–3.
The props carried: London went over 69.5, Penix threw for 240 and Andrews had 28. The best bet missed: it was close into the fourth quarter, then Penix left with an injury, Tua came in, and Baltimore pulled away to 30 without Lamar. Atlanta didn’t cover -3.5, and Henry averaged 4.3 a carry. Katastrophe on the best bet. We regroup.
No Lamar. A Falcons offense that just dropped 80 points in two weeks. And a betting line that’s already moved. Sunday Night Football brings a Jackson-less Baltimore into the ATL, and the question is whether the market moved enough. Let’s get into it.
The snapshot
| Ravens (3-1) | Falcons (2-2) | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 | -3.5 |
| Moneyline | about +145 | about -170 |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.5 |
| QB | Tyler Huntley | Michael Penix Jr. |
Kickoff: 8:20 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium · TV: NBC / Peacock
The Lamar factor
Lamar Jackson is out with an ankle injury, and Tyler Huntley makes his first start of 2026. The drop-off has history behind it:
- Since 2019, Baltimore is 82-37 (68.9%) and scores 27.8 points per game with Jackson. Without him: 10-17 (37.0%) and 19.6 points per game.
- Since 2022, the Ravens have scored under 20.5 points in 8 of 10 regular-season games without Jackson, averaging 15.9.
- Huntley is 5-7 in 12 starts in place of Jackson. In relief last week, Baltimore didn’t score after halftime.
Expect a run-first plan built around Derrick Henry, with short, safe throws to Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers.
Atlanta’s surge with Penix
The Falcons look like a different team since Michael Penix Jr. took over in Week 3. They won 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans, with one turnover across both games.
- Penix has completed 73.3% of his passes for 479 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, with a 113.1 passer rating and 10.6 yards per attempt.
- He’s been pressured on just 19% of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.
- Drake London has 14 catches for 290 yards over the last two games. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards at Green Bay and 145 at New Orleans.
The one caution: Atlanta is on a short week after two road wins. But, what do Falcons do? (#RiseUp)
The matchup that decides it: Henry vs. the brick wall
Derrick Henry vs. the league’s stingiest run defense. Henry has 89 carries through four weeks and averages close to 100 rushing yards a game. But Atlanta allows an NFL-low 2.7 yards per carry and ranks first in EPA per rush. If the Falcons stop Henry on early downs, Huntley ends up in third-and-long, which is the situation Baltimore least wants him in.
Bijan Robinson vs. a softer Ravens front. Baltimore ranks 24th in opponent rush EPA and plays without edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. Bijan averages 5.9 yards per touch, the best in the league among players with 50+ touches.
Where Baltimore can push back: Atlanta is one of seven teams allowing more than 250 passing yards per game. If Huntley gets time, Andrews and Flowers have room to work.
Bottom line: if Henry can’t get going, Huntley is throwing on third-and-long all night. That’s not where Baltimore wants to be.
Injury report
| Team | Out | Questionable |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens | QB Lamar Jackson (ankle), C Cam Jurgens (concussion), OLB Trey Hendrickson (finger) | WR Zay Flowers (foot, active), CB Marlon Humphrey (hamstring), OG Andrew Vorhees (foot) |
| Falcons | DE Za’Darius Smith (concussion), LB Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) | None. LB Divine Deablo, DE Samson Ebukam and T Jake Matthews were questionable but are active |
The two that matter most on the field: Baltimore is without its starting center, which hurts Huntley’s protection. Atlanta is without its top pass rusher, which gives some of that protection back.
The picks
Ravens team total Under 20.5
Baltimore has gone under this number in 8 of its last 10 games without Jackson, its center is out, and it faces the league’s best run defense.
Falcons -3.5
Atlanta’s offense is rolling with Penix, and Baltimore’s offense loses about 8 points per game without Jackson. The number sits just past a field goal, so shop for -3 if you can find it.
Player props
| Player | Pick | Line | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | Over receiving yards | 69.5 | 14 catches for 290 yards over the last two games; projections land around 85; 6+ catches in 7 of his last 11 games with Penix |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Over passing yards | 199.5 | Projections land around 224; league-low pressure rate |
| Mark Andrews | Over receiving yards | 24.5 | Projection about 35; backup QBs lean on the tight end |
| Derrick Henry | Under rushing yards per carry | 4.0 | He’s at 4.2 this season; Atlanta allows an NFL-low 2.7 per carry and 48.3 rushing yards a game |
Lines as of Sunday afternoon and subject to change. 21+. For entertainment and informational purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Results go on the Receipts page. Want every play the moment it drops? Join the Kast Klub waitlist.