Cowboys at Eagles: can Philly's offense survive without Hurts?
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Alright, Kulture Kast, pull up a chair. Both teams are 2-4, Dallas is a road favorite, and the Eagles don't have Jalen Hurts. So Don-K's question for Monday night is simple: can Philadelphia's offense do anything against a Dallas defense that ranks 31st? Let's go.
The snapshot
| Cowboys (2-4) | Eagles (2-4) | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-112) | +4.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -218 | +180 |
| Total | o44.5 (-110) | u44.5 (-110) |
| Against the spread | 3-3 | 1-5 |
Lines from DraftKings via SI. CBS had different numbers on the moneyline, so check yours. Lines move and books don't match.
Philadelphia without Hurts
Hurts is on injured reserve with blood clots. Tanner McKee is the starter, and in his first start last week against Carolina he went 45 attempts for 215 yards and the Eagles scored 14 points. Per Covers, Philly threw on 78.7% of its plays in that game, which is the highest rate in the league that week.
The ground game is a question mark too, though Outlier has Barkley's rushing line at 69.5 and Pierce's at 15.5, so the market is pricing Barkley in. Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring. He played in Weeks 1 through 4 and I don't see him in the Week 5 or 6 logs. He took part in the start of practice Saturday. Dameon Pierce had 11 and 12 carries in the last two weeks, for 14 and 35 yards. And Tank Bigsby, Will Shipley and Landon Dickerson are on injured reserve.
Dallas's weapons
SI has Dallas 8th in offensive EPA per play and 31st on defense, and Philly 31st in offensive EPA per play. That's a lopsided matchup on paper, and the Cowboys are the road favorite because of it.
Dak Prescott has thrown for 175, 279, 276, 335, 316 and 258, and he has not thrown for fewer than 175. George Pickens had 130 yards in Week 5 and 73 in Week 6, and he has been over 70 in four of six games. CeeDee Lamb is the volume piece: 21 targets and 189 yards against Houston in Week 4, then 2 catches for 9 yards in Week 5 and 9 for 70 on 18 targets in Week 6. And Javonte Williams has 12, 12, 19, 19, 12 and 11 carries, and has scored in five of six.
Now the catch. Dallas is 1-3 against the spread as a favorite, and the Eagles' defense has been the weak point on the other side. Dallas has also lost two straight, and per Covers Prescott's two lowest yards-per-attempt games were both outdoors. Tonight is outdoors.
Injuries
Cowboys: KaVontae Turpin and Dee Winters are doubtful. DeMarvion Overshown, Cobie Durant and Drew Shelton are questionable. Eagles: Barkley, A.J. Epenesa, Jalyx Hunt, Michael Carter II, Nolan Smith and Carson Steele are questionable. Lane Johnson is retired. Check the official report before kickoff.
What the number says
Dallas at -218 is about 69% before the book takes its cut, and Philly at +180 is about 36%. Four and a half is just past the key number of four, so a field goal win doesn't cover. I'm not claiming a side. Philly is 1-5 against the spread and Dallas is 1-3 as a favorite, which tells me the market is a lot more sure than the results are.
The Board: Don-K's plays for tonight
Javonte Williams over 59.5 rushing yards at -130 (1.77) · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier. My model has him at about 64 yards on 15 carries, and he has gone over 40 in five of six games. The edge is small: Outlier shows this over hitting in 2 of his last 5 and 33% this season, and 63.5 is priced at 1.96. The risk: Dallas falls behind and the carries dry up. If it goes to 63.5 or higher, I pass.
CeeDee Lamb under 79.5 receiving yards at +104 (2.04) · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier. My model has him at about 74, and he has cleared 79.5 in three of six games, all at 112 or more. Outlier shows the under in 6 of his last 10. The pause: Outlier ranks Philadelphia 25th against receivers, a soft matchup, so I keep it at Like and no higher. The risk: Dallas needs to throw and he gets 18 targets again.
Watch, not plays: Pickens over 64.5 at 1.94 (my model is right at 64, so no edge), and the Eagles running backs until Barkley's status is clear.
Prices are Outlier's best, read Monday afternoon, so check yours. These are Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Check the final injury report and your own book before you play.
Dallas leans on Williams and Pickens, McKee keeps throwing and not scoring enough, and the game lands right on the number.
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