Hawks at Hornets: Don‑K says depth decides it.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
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— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) (October 22, 2026)
Alright, Kulture Kast, pull up a chair. Don-K picked Hawks at Hornets because it comes down to one question: who runs Charlotte's offense? Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams are all on the injury list through at least Saturday, and Atlanta walks in off a 132-point night in Orlando. Kulture Kast is an Atlanta shop, so I held myself to the number, not the logo.
The snapshot
| Hawks (1-0) | Hornets (1-0) | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-115 / 1.87) | +2.5 (-105 / 1.95) |
| Moneyline | -142 (1.70) | +120 (2.20) |
| Total | o226.5 (-110 / 1.91) | u226.5 (-110 / 1.91) |
| Wednesday's opener | W 132-125 at Orlando | W 110-103 at Brooklyn |
Lines from CBS Sports on Friday morning. Lines move and books don't match, so check yours before you play.
Charlotte's backcourt problem
Here's the list. Knueppel (hamstring), White (calf) and Williams (hamstring) are out until at least Oct 24 on CBS's report, and Kylan Boswell (knee) is out until at least Nov 2. Coming into the season, Roundtable had White, Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Naz Reid and Moussa Diabaté as Charlotte's starting five. That's two of the five on the shelf.
Here's what I like about Charlotte, though. They won in Brooklyn on Wednesday, 110-103. Reid had 20 points and 11 rebounds, and Diabaté added 17 points, 8 rebounds and 5 steals. The bigs can carry some of this. The question is who brings the ball up. Rotoballer pointed to Dennis Schroder and rookie Christian Anderson for the extra backcourt minutes, and that is the group I'm watching.
Atlanta's side
The Hawks beat Orlando 132-125. Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored 31, Jalen Johnson pulled down 14 rebounds and Onyeka Okongwu handed out 7 assists. Atlanta hit 14 of 36 from three and 30 of 36 at the line. The injury list is two names, Mouhamed Gueye (foot) and Henri Veesaar (knee), which is a short list for a road team.
Now the catch. Orlando scored 125 in that game, so don't assume the defense travels.
What the number says
The moneyline is Hawks -142 (1.70), which is 58.7% before the book takes its cut. Charlotte at +120 (2.20) is 45.5%. A road favorite of only 2.5 against a team missing two starters tells me the book already knows about the injuries. I'm not claiming a giant edge. I'm saying 2.5 is a small number for Atlanta's depth to clear.
The Board: Don-K's picks for tonight
Hawks -2.5 at -115 (1.87)
Or Hawks moneyline -142 (1.70) if you don't want to sweat the hook. Atlanta wins by three or more and it cashes. The risk: Charlotte's replacements play loose, Reid and Diabaté keep eating, and it's a one-possession game late. If Knueppel or White gets upgraded on the 5:30 PM report, I take another look before I lean on this.
Brandon Miller under 33.5 points + rebounds + assists at -105 (1.95) · Kast It: Love
Best price on Outlier. Miller is Charlotte's top option with Knueppel, White and Williams out, and Outlier shows this under hitting in all of his last 10 games and 17 of his last 20 (85%). The risk: more shots with the backcourt out could push him over, and the under has hit only 33% in his games against Atlanta. If the line drops below 32.5, I pass.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 2.5 three-pointers made at -114 (1.88) · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier. Alexander-Walker had 31 in Wednesday's opener, and Atlanta hit 14 of 36 from three. Outlier shows this over hitting in 8 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20 (75%). The risk: Charlotte's perimeter defense takes away his looks and he finishes 1 or 2 for 6. If it goes to 3.5, I pass.
Jalen Johnson over 37.5 points + rebounds + assists at -112 (1.89) · Kast It: Lean
Price is FanDuel's as of this morning. Johnson had an off night in the opener, 7 of 19 from the field and foul trouble, and he still finished with 40 combined points, rebounds and assists. Last season he cleared this number in 41 of 62 games (67%) when he played 20+ minutes without Trae Young. The risk: foul trouble again, or a game that gets lopsided and cuts his minutes. If the line climbs to 38.5, I pass.
Watch, not a play: the total, 226.5 at -110 on both sides. The two openers went for 257 points in Atlanta's game and 213 in Charlotte's. That's too wide for me to lean either way.
The prop prices are Outlier's best price (Miller, Alexander-Walker) and FanDuel's (Johnson), read today, so check yours. These are Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Check the final injury report and your own book before you play.
Atlanta's depth shows up in the second half, Charlotte's bigs keep it respectable, and the total lands right on the number.
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