Patriots at Bears: Don-K says this one's won in the trenches.

Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch

Alright, Kulture Kast, pull up a chair. Don-K did the homework on this one, and I'm gonna keep it simple: this game gets decided up front. Both teams are 4–2. Both teams think they're built for January. But New England's offensive line is held together with tape and good intentions, and Chicago is walking in with the third-highest blitz rate in the league (42.3%) and the second-best sack rate (9%). You see where this is going? Let's get into it.

The snapshot

Lines from ESPN, odds from DraftKings, as of Thursday morning. Lines move and books don't match, so check yours before you play.

New England's line is a patchwork

Here's the damage. Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are on injured reserve. Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and Ben Brown (knee) are out. Morgan Moses is questionable. On a short week. Against that pass rush. Come on.

So who's stepping in? Coach Vrabel says Matt Pryor and Walter Rouse start at guard. Will Campbell holds down left tackle, and if Moses can't go, rookie Caleb Lomu slides in at right. And I'll give the kid his flowers: zero pressures allowed in 30 pass-blocking snaps against the Jets. The tackle isn't my worry. The guards are.

Where Chicago's carries go

Kyle Monangai is out again with the turf toe, second game in a row. Now, don't panic, because D'Andre Swift was already the guy: 94 touches, 398 yards, six touchdowns, 56.7% of the snaps. Swift soaks up most of that work, and Roschon Johnson is next in line. Johnson found the end zone against Atlanta, so keep an eye on him near the goal line.

But here's the catch. New England is giving up just 3.9 yards a carry and hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher. Swift ran for 58, 43 and 44 in his last three. And the Bears still lead the whole league in rushing (160.7 a game) and time of possession (36:01). They're gonna run it. The question is how many yards each run gets.

The secondary, both sides

New England is down three corners: Carlton Davis III (neck), Karon Prunty and Channing Canada (both hamstring). What's left is Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Charles Woods and Kindle Vildor, and safeties Kevin Byard III and Craig Woodson are both questionable. Chicago has its own problems: Tyrique Stevenson is questionable with a hip, T.J. Edwards is doubtful, Jack Sanborn is out, and Keyshaun Elliott is cleared to come back.

Caleb Williams, meanwhile, just went 30-for-36 for 305 against Atlanta.

Drake Maye's soft schedule

Now, Maye's been cooking: 10 touchdowns and one pick over his last three. But who's he been cooking on? Softer defenses. This is a step up. Chicago is second in sack rate, and Maye has been taking the checkdown or throwing it away instead of eating sacks, which is smart. But Chicago is also 28th in explosive plays allowed (18.4% of drop-backs) and 29th in EPA per play on early downs, so if New England gets a clean look on first and second down, play-action shots are there.

The Board: Don-K's picks for tonight

Bonus watch: Roschon Johnson anytime touchdown. I didn't pull a price, so you check yours.

These are Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Check the final injury report and your own book before you play.

Ideas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.