Heat at Hawks: Atlanta gets Miami while Miami is still looking for win number one.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
Listen, I know you were waiting on this one. The Hawks are 2-2, the Heat are 0-4 and the building is ours tonight at 7:00 PM ET. Atlanta is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 240.5, and my model has the Hawks winning 120.3 to 118.4.
The snapshot
| Heat | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Spread | +2.5 | -2.5 |
| Total | 240.5 | 240.5 |
| Implied points | 119.0 | 121.5 |
Spread and total from the Kulture Kast NBA dashboard, Wednesday 1:03 PM ET. Books differ by about a point and lines move, so check yours.
Both teams are coming off a loss
Atlanta fell at Houston 120-110 on Monday, and Miami lost 113-109 at home to Dallas. A team that is 0-4 is either about to snap or about to get stepped on, and I do not trust either story enough to dress it up.
Who to watch
Giannis Antetokounmpo has gone 35, 36, 14 and 29 points in four games, and my model has him at 27.6 points, 10.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists. That 14 came on 25 minutes, so the floor is real. Jalen Johnson is the engine for Atlanta at 20.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.7 assists in the model, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker projects at 17.8 points with 3.0 threes. Bam Adebayo is up at 18.9 points and 9.5 rebounds, well above his 11.8-point average over four games.
Injury tags
Aaron Wiggins (knee) is questionable for Atlanta. Pelle Larsson (ankle) and Simone Fontecchio (illness) are questionable for Miami. I will not put a play on anybody carrying a tag, and I'll recheck the report before tip.
Quick hits around the league
76ers at Pacers (7:00 PM ET, PHI -5.5, total 235.5): LeBron James is the one I like. He has scored 14, 17 and 18 this season, and over his last eight games he has cleared 17 in seven. My model has him near 21 points. Ivica Zubac is out for Indiana. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith are all questionable, so every Embiid and Haliburton prop stays off my board until the tags clear.
Warriors at Timberwolves (8:00 PM ET, MIN -3.5, total 227.5): Anthony Edwards is out with a knee injury until at least Dec 21, which pushes Ayo Dosunmu into a bigger role at about 14 points in the model. He has 16 and 14 in his two best games but 9 and 9 in his last two, so that one is a Lean. LaMelo Ball at 7+ assists is a pass: the model has 6.2 and he has gotten there once in four games. Yaxel Lendeborg (foot) is questionable for Golden State.
Nuggets at Pelicans (8:00 PM ET, DEN -5.5, total 240.5): Yves Missi is out for New Orleans, which keeps Derik Queen on the floor with 10, 7 and 8 rebounds in three games, and Saddiq Bey has been steady at 13, 20 and 14 points. I looked at a Zion Williamson rebounds under, but my updated minutes put him at about 30 a night and the number is a coin flip, so that is a pass. Cameron Johnson (ankle) and Jordan Poole (illness) are both questionable.
Rockets at Bucks (8:00 PM ET, HOU -8.5, total 226.5): Alperen Sengun is out with a back injury until at least Oct 30. Myles Turner under 5.5 rebounds is a pass for me now that the model has him near 26 minutes, and he grabbed 9 in 28 last time. Marcus Smart (forearm) is questionable.
Spurs at Jazz (9:00 PM ET, SAS -12.5, total 234.5): San Antonio played last night and still won by 27. Keyonte George has 22, 19, 24 and 26 points this season, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is out until at least Dec 14. Lauri Markkanen (wrist) is questionable, so check back before tip.
Thunder at Mavericks (9:30 PM ET, OKC -6.5, total 229.5): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ assists looks good in the model, but I do not trust it. He has 4, 3, 5 and 3 assists in 30 to 36 minutes this season. Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso are out, and Ajay Mitchell, Kyrie Irving and Naji Marshall are questionable. This one stays on the shelf for me.
I am passing on Giannis 32+ points (the model gives that about a third) and Dyson Daniels 7+ rebounds (the model has him at 6.0). The loud numbers in this game are not the right numbers.
The Board: Don-K's plays for tonight
No Love tonight. Nothing on this slate has the Williams-style gap between my number and the line, and I would rather say that than invent one. Two Likes and four Leans:
LeBron James 17+ points · Kast It: Like
76ers at Pacers. My model has him near 21 points, and he has cleared 17 in seven of his last eight. Zubac is out for Indiana. The risk: Embiid and Haliburton are questionable, and that can change how the game plays.
Saddiq Bey 12+ points · Kast It: Like
Nuggets at Pelicans. Bey has scored 13, 20 and 14 for New Orleans, and my model has him near 13.5 points in about 23 minutes. The risk: a cold shooting night.
Ayo Dosunmu 13+ points · Kast It: Lean
Warriors at Timberwolves. With Edwards out my model has Dosunmu near 14 points. The risk: he scored 9 in each of his last two.
Derik Queen 7+ rebounds · Kast It: Lean
Nuggets at Pelicans. Queen has 10, 7 and 8 rebounds, and Missi is out for New Orleans. My model has him near 7 in about 24 minutes. The risk: it is a number he can miss by one.
Keyonte George 21+ points · Kast It: Lean
Spurs at Jazz. George has 22, 19, 24 and 26 points, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is out. My model has him near 21 in about 31 minutes. The risk: a 12.5-point Spurs favorite can mean a blowout and fewer minutes.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 3+ threes · Kast It: Lean
Heat at Hawks. He made 5 and 4 threes in two of his four games, and my model has him near 3 in about 30 minutes. The risk: he has also made just 2 twice.
Injury watch before you play: recheck the official report around 5:30 PM ET for Embiid, Haliburton, Nembhard, Wiggins, Larsson, Lendeborg, Markkanen, Cameron Johnson and Smart.
Atlanta gets it done at home, and it comes down to the last few possessions. That is a call, not a Board play.
