Pistons at Knicks: unbeaten Detroit walks into a Garden that needs a win.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
Alright, Kulture Kast, the champs are 0-3. Last spring the Knicks went 16-3 in the playoffs and won their first title since 1973. This fall they have lost to Philadelphia, Boston and Orlando, and tonight they host a Detroit team that is 3-0. I think the Pistons keep it going, and I'll show you why.
The snapshot
| Pistons | Knicks | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Spread | +4.5 | -4.5 |
| Total | 218.5 | 218.5 |
| Implied points | 107.0 | 111.5 |
Spread and total from the Kulture Kast NBA dashboard, Tuesday 1:48 PM ET. Moneyline from Bleacher Nation is Knicks -162, Pistons +136. Books differ and lines move, so check yours.
How the Knicks got to 0-3
They lost the opener to Philadelphia, 106-100, when the 76ers closed the third quarter on an 11-0 run. They lost 107-103 at Boston on Friday, with Jayson Tatum taking over down the stretch. Sunday they lost 111-102 to Orlando after blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth, and the Magic finished the game on a 35-16 run.
That is three games where New York was right there late and let it go. Jalen Brunson has said publicly that the offense falls on him, and my dashboard has him at about 38 minutes tonight. That is a lot of load for a team trying to find its rhythm.
How the Pistons got to 3-0
Detroit beat Boston 121-113 on Oct. 20 after trailing by 22. They beat Miami 128-111 on Friday, never trailed and opened with a 22-5 run. Sunday they beat Philadelphia 106-93 wire to wire, up 20-4 early. Cade Cunningham is projected for about 35 minutes tonight.
Who is on the floor
The official report was in as of the 1:48 PM ET dashboard refresh. For Detroit, Jalen Duren (hamstring) is out until at least Nov 9, and Ausar Thompson (ankle) and Isaiah Joe (hip) are both questionable and game-time decisions. Daniss Jenkins scored 18 on Sunday starting in Thompson's place, so the Pistons have a plan if he sits. For New York, Jose Alvarado (ankle) is out until at least Oct 28. I'll recheck the report before tip.
What the number says, and where I disagree
The market likes New York. The moneyline of -162 implies about 62 percent for the Knicks, and the spread has them by 4.5. My model has the Knicks by less than two, with the two teams at about 106 and 104 points. I'm leaning Detroit outright. That is my call, not a play on the Board, and I haven't priced the moneyline.
My model's total is also a few points below the 218.5 number. I'm not putting that on the Board either. What I do like is one Pistons shooter.
Quick hits around the league
Nets at Celtics (7:30 PM ET): Boston is an 11.5-point favorite with a 222.5 total on the dashboard. Devin Carter (illness) is out for Boston until at least Nov 8. I'm on one Celtic, and it is an under.
Kings at Spurs (8:00 PM ET): San Antonio is laying 18.5 with a 230.5 total. Sacramento is without Keegan Murray (ankle, until at least Nov 6), Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud, and San Antonio's Tobias Harris (calf) is out until at least Oct 28. A big spread means the blowout risk is real, but the Kings are short on bodies, and that is where my play comes from.
Trail Blazers at Lakers (11:00 PM ET, NBC and Peacock): the dashboard has Los Angeles by 2.5 and books range up to 3.5, with the total between 234.5 and 236.5. Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe (knee), and Scoot Henderson (ankle) and Branden Carlson (concussion) are questionable. This is the late game, so check the report before you play it.
The Board: Don-K's plays for tonight
Jayson Tatum under 34.5 points + assists at 1.87 · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier, Nets at Celtics. My model has him near 28 points plus assists, and Outlier shows this under in 8 of his last 10. The risk: a big night in a game Boston controls.
Duncan Robinson over 16.5 points + rebounds + assists at 1.91 · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier, Pistons at Knicks. My model has him near 18, and Outlier shows this over in 8 of his last 10 and in every game this season. The risk: his minutes. If Thompson or Joe sit, that could help him.
Precious Achiuwa over 18.5 points + rebounds at 1.93 · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier, Kings at Spurs. My model has him near 22, and Outlier shows this over in 8 of his last 10 and in every game this season. Sacramento's front line is thin. The risk: a Spurs blowout cuts the minutes.
Ziaire Williams over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists at 1.84 · Kast It: Love
Best price on Outlier, Trail Blazers at Lakers. My model has him near 16, and Outlier shows this over in 9 of his last 10 and in every game this season. The risk: a quiet shooting night.
Detroit keeps finding a way to win, and New York has not closed one yet. The Pistons stay unbeaten, and the Knicks wait another night for win number one.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.