Hawks at Rockets: Atlanta reviews the tape and takes the rematch.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
Alright, Kulture Kast, Atlanta is my team, so I'll say it up front: the Hawks just played this game on Saturday and lost it, 121-114. Now they get it again, in Houston, and I think they pull it out. Teams that lose a game like that go to the film, fix the gaps and play smarter the second time. I'm going to show you what I think they fix.
The snapshot
| Hawks | Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 | -5.5 |
| Total | 230.5 | 230.5 |
| Implied points | 112.5 | 118.0 |
| Saturday | 114 | 121 |
Spread and total from the Kulture Kast NBA dashboard, Monday afternoon. Books differ and lines move, so check yours.
What Saturday told us
Houston led by as many as 20 and Atlanta clawed back with a 33-point fourth, so the final score is kinder to the Hawks than the game was. The difference was the line and the three: Houston shot 14 of 35 from deep and got to the line 23 times, hitting 21. Atlanta went 13 of 49 from three and 15 of 21 at the stripe.
The Hawks did win some things. They scored 58 points in the paint to Houston's 46, grabbed 17 offensive rebounds, and had 35 assists to 27. When your shot chart is 49 threes and a wall of layups, that's a choice, not an accident.
Jalen Johnson, the engine
Jalen Johnson had 26 points, 9 rebounds and 16 assists Saturday. My model has him at about 20 points, 9 boards and 7 assists tonight, with a middle outcome of roughly 36 points plus rebounds plus assists. He is the reason the Hawks can score on anybody.
Dyson Daniels added 18 and 8 on 8 of 11 shooting. CJ McCollum scored 17, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the other scoring option my model leans on at about 18.
Houston: Durant, Sengun and a hot Sheppard
Kevin Durant scored 22 on 15 shots. Alperen Sengun had 17 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. Reed Sheppard came off the bench for 19 on five threes. Houston's bench outscored Atlanta's 32 to 27.
Who is on the floor
Official injury report was in as of the 2:33 PM ET dashboard refresh. For Atlanta, Mouhamed Gueye (foot) is out until at least Nov 20, and Jalen Wilson, RayJ Dennis and Keshon Gilbert haven't played in the last three games, so I'm treating them as out. For Houston, Steven Adams (calf) is out until at least Oct 28, and Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart are questionable. I'll recheck the report before tip.
What the number says, and where I disagree
The market likes Houston. The win-probability feed has the Rockets at about 63 percent, close to what -5.5 implies. I'm going the other way and have Atlanta winning outright. That's my call, not a play on the Board, and I haven't priced the moneyline. Where I do see it: a 120-116 final lands over the 230.5 total, and the Hawks' 49 threes and 17 offensive rebounds on Saturday point to a game with plenty of possessions.
How does Atlanta close the gap? Hit a few more of those threes, stop fouling (Houston shot 23 free throws), and keep winning the paint. If those three things happen, the same shot mix wins.
The Board: Don-K's plays for tonight
CJ McCollum over 14.5 points at 1.83 (-120) · Kast It: Lean
Best price on Outlier. My model has him near 17 points in about 27 minutes, and Outlier shows this over in 7 of his last 10. The risk: Houston's defense.
Cooper Flagg under 5.5 assists at 1.84 · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier, Mavericks at Heat. Outlier shows the under in 7 of his last 10. The risk: Miami runs the offense through him.
Ty Jerome over 29.5 points + rebounds at 1.84 · Kast It: Love
Best price on Outlier, Grizzlies at Jazz. He is averaging 34.7 points in 3 games, and the over has hit in all 3 this season. My model leans the other way because it cuts his minutes, so this is a read on his role, not a model edge.
Stephen Curry under 28.5 points + rebounds at 1.87 · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier, Warriors at Nuggets. Outlier shows the under in 7 of his last 10 and in all 3 games this year. The risk: a hot night.
Kevin Durant under 0.5 double double at 1.04 · Kast It: Like
Hawks at Rockets. Outlier shows the under in every window. The price is only 1.04, so you risk a lot to win a little.
Atlanta watches the film, cleans up the fouls and finds a few more threes. Johnson runs it, the paint stays Atlanta's, and the total lands over the number.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.