Sunday Kast: Don-K's NFL board.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
Alright, Kulture Kast, pull up a chair. It's Sunday, there are 12 NFL games from Paris at 9:30 AM ET to Kansas City at Seattle tonight on NBC, and I've got five plays for you. Two of the games I'm featuring don't have a play at all, and I'll tell you why. Kulture Kast is an Atlanta shop, so when the Falcons play, I hold myself to the number and not the logo.
Niners at Falcons: the number is fair
| 49ers (6-0) | Falcons (2-4) | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 | +2.5 |
| Total | 50.5 | |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Mercedes-Benz Stadium | |
| Last five | W 23-17 vs WSH · W 32-29 at SEA · W 24-14 vs DEN · W 36-30 vs ARI · W 35-13 vs MIA | L 23-31 vs CHI · L 23-30 vs BAL · W 45-24 at NO · W 35-14 at GB · L 3-34 vs CAR |
Spread and total are ESPN's, read Sunday morning. CBS had the total at 49.5 earlier, so books differ and lines move.
San Francisco is unbeaten, but it is not at full strength. Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans are out, Christian Kirk is questionable, and on defense Nick Bosa and safety Marques Sigle are out. Atlanta has Brian Robinson and Beaux Collins out, with linebacker Divine Deablo out too, and corner C.J. Henderson and receiver Olamide Zaccheaus are questionable. Two sources I checked disagreed on A.J. Terrell's status, so watch the inactives at about 11:50 AM ET.
So where's the play? I ran the Falcons' numbers the way I'd run anyone's. Bijan Robinson is a coin flip at 89 rushing yards: the model has him at 103 on average but 88 in the middle, and he cleared it in only 2 of 6 games (83, 72, 194, 145, 86, 61). Drake London's receiving line of 83.5 is just as swingy, with games of 29 and 194. Michael Penix Jr. at 230 passing yards is about 50-50. Nothing clears the bar, so I'm not forcing one.
Chiefs at Seahawks: unbeaten Kansas City on Sunday night
| Chiefs (5-0) | Seahawks (3-3) | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 | -3 |
| Total | 42.5 | |
| Kickoff | 8:20 PM ET · NBC · Lumen Field | |
| Last game | W 22-6 vs LAC | L 14-17 at DEN |
Kansas City has won five straight, two of them by a field goal (33-30 over Indianapolis and 30-27 at Las Vegas). Seattle is 3-3 and just lost 14-17 in Denver. The Seahawks are missing running back Zach Charbonnet and linebacker Drake Thomas, and DeMarcus Lawrence and Nick Emmanwori are questionable. Kansas City has Rashee Rice out, Travis Kelce limited in practice and L'Jarius Sneed questionable.
Two names for your own list, not mine. Kenneth Walker III has run for 173, 117, 70, 177 and 128 yards for Kansas City against a line of about 80, but the model only makes him a 42% shot to clear it, so I'm leaving it. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has cleared 92.5 receiving yards in 5 of 6 games, and the model has him at 56%, so it's a lean at best. I'll look again at the inactives.
The Board: Don-K's plays for Sunday
Five plays, in kickoff order. Prices are Outlier's best, read Sunday morning, and the Gibbs price is the model's, because I didn't pull a book price for it. Check yours.
Morning: Steelers vs Saints in Paris, 9:30 AM ET
Jaylen Warren over 25.5 receiving yards · Kast It: Like
Outlier bracketed it with the over at 24.5 for -106 (1.94) and 26.5 for +108 (2.08), so check which number your book gives you. Warren has cleared 25.5 in all six games this season, with 27, 34, 49, 33, 87 and 28. The model is only at 50% on it, so this is a role bet. The risk: Rico Dowdle is questionable, and kickoff is 9:30 AM ET, so this one locks first.
1:00 PM ET: Colts at Vikings and Bengals at Ravens
Aaron Jones over 39.5 rushing yards at -103 (1.97) · Kast It: Like
Best price on Outlier. Jones has run for 40, 105, 58, 94 and 113, and Minnesota is 5-0 as a 6.5-point favorite, which tends to mean carries late. The risk: Jordan Mason (thumb) is active, and in Week 1, the one game both were healthy, Jones had 12 carries for 40 yards, right at this number. Treat it as a floor play.
Chase Brown over 39.5 rushing yards at -115 (1.87) · Kast It: Love
Best price on Outlier (40.5 pays 1.91). Brown gets about 57% of Cincinnati's carries, the Bengals are 3-point favorites, and Baltimore is missing safety Jaylinn Hawkins and outside linebacker Tavius Robinson. The model has him at 60 yards. The risk: Samaje Perine had 14 carries in Week 5, and Brown had 10 and 39 yards in two of his last three.
4:25 PM ET: Packers at Lions and Rams at Raiders
Jahmyr Gibbs to score a touchdown anytime · Kast It: Love
The model's fair price is -185 (1.54), about a 65% chance, so I'd want that or better. I didn't pull a book price. Gibbs has had about 94% of Detroit's carries inside the 10 this season, scored 3, 1 and 2 touchdowns in his last three games, and Isiah Pacheco is out. Detroit's implied 29.5 points lead the slate. The risk: a touchdown prop is one swing, and the price can be steep.
Matthew Stafford over 265 passing yards · Kast It: Lean
Outlier had 264.5 at -114 (1.88) and 265.5 at -108 (1.93), so check which one you can get. Stafford has gone over 264.5 in 4 of 6 games, the model has him at about 280 on 37 attempts, and it has run about 6 yards low on quarterbacks, so 280 is not a stretch. The risk: Puka Nacua is questionable and Davante Adams is out, and if Nacua sits this gets harder. That's why it's a Lean.
These are Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Check the final inactives, about 11:50 AM ET, and your own book before you play. More on the Board.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.