Finals Game 4: the Dream have the Valkyries right where they want them.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
WNBA Finals Game 4
— WNBA (@WNBA) (October 24, 2026)
Alright, Kulture Kast, pull up a chair. Atlanta is showing up and showing out, and so are the Dream. The Dream lead the Finals 2–1, the building is loud, and the momentum is theirs. Kulture Kast is an Atlanta shop, so I held myself to the number and not the logo. It still comes out the same way: Golden State needs clean looks against this defense, and so far it hasn't gotten any.
The snapshot
| Valkyries | Dream | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (SI) / +5.5 (Outlier) | -4.5 (SI) / -5.5 (+102 / 2.02, Outlier) |
| Moneyline | +160 | -192 |
| Total | 153.5 | 153.5 |
| Series | 1-2 | 2-1 |
Lines from SI and Outlier on Saturday morning. Books differ and lines move, so check yours before you play.
Atlanta is playing defense and owning the glass
Game 3 was Dream 97, Valkyries 71. Golden State shot 24 of 69 (34.8%). They haven't shot better than 35% in any game of this series, and they have scored 71 or fewer in all three. The only game the Valkyries won was Game 1, 68–64.
Angel Reese had 21 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals in Game 3, and Rhyne Howard added 16. Reese's rebounds this series are 12, 16 and 12, and she had 30 points and 16 boards in Game 2. Per CBS, Atlanta is 15–0 when she hits a three.
Who has the ball
Jordin Canada ran the show in Game 2 with 13 points, 7 rebounds and 10 assists. Allisha Gray is available after the hand scare in Game 3. She scored 19 in Game 1 and 18 in Game 2. Brionna Jones is out for Atlanta, per SI.
On the other side, Gabby Williams has been cold: 5 of 18 in Game 3 and 8 of 33 over the last two games. The risk is that a star bounces back in a must-win game.
What the number says
The market has Atlanta as a 4.5- to 5.5-point favorite, so the home crowd and the Game 3 blowout are already priced in. I'm not saying the Dream can't lose. The Valkyries won Game 1. I'm saying 5.5 is a number this defense can clear.
The Board: Don-K's picks
Dream -5.5 at +102 (2.02) · Kast It: Like
Price from Outlier. SI has the Dream at -4.5, so check the number. Atlanta has held Golden State to 71 or fewer in every game, and the Dream's wins were by 14 and 26. The risk: a one-possession game if Golden State's shooters wake up.
Angel Reese over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists at -110 (1.91) · Kast It: Love
Price from Outlier. She had 36 combined in Game 3, and 30 points and 16 rebounds in Game 2. The risk: a blowout that cuts her minutes.
Jordin Canada over 11.5 rebounds + assists at +106 (2.06) · Kast It: Like
Price from Outlier. She had 17 combined in Game 2. The risk: Atlanta's scoring comes from Reese and Gray and Canada gets fewer assists.
Prices are Outlier's, read Saturday morning, so check yours. These are Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Check the injury report and your own book before you play.
Atlanta's defense and Reese on the glass decide it, and Golden State stays under 70 again.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.