Finals Game 5: 2-2, and the Valkyries don't have to shoot well to win.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
Alright, Kulture Kast, pull up a chair. The Finals are 2-2, and Game 5 is in San Francisco on Monday night. Kulture Kast is an Atlanta shop, and the Dream just lost at home in Game 4, so I held myself to the number and not the logo. The story of this series is simple: nobody can shoot. Let's get into it.
The snapshot
| Dream (30-14) | Valkyries (32-12) | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -102 | -118 |
| Total | o150.5 (-110) | u150.5 (-110) |
| Series | 2-2 | 2-2 |
Lines from ESPN (DraftKings) on Monday afternoon. The total opened at 149.5. Books differ and lines move, so check yours.
Four games, and the total keeps going under
Game 1 was Valkyries 68, Dream 64. Game 2 was Dream 79, Valkyries 65. Game 3 was Dream 97, Valkyries 71. Game 4 was Valkyries 67, Dream 62. That's 132, 144, 168 and 129 combined points, and three of the four were under tonight's 150.5. Game 3 is the only one that cleared it, and it did it by 17.5.
Game 4 was ugly for both teams. Golden State shot 36% (26 of 72) and Atlanta shot 33% (18 of 54), and the Dream were 4 of 23 from three. The Valkyries were 4 of 25. So how did Golden State win? Atlanta turned it over 18 times to Golden State's 9.
The glass
Kiah Stokes grabbed 16 rebounds in Game 4, 8 of them offensive, and she has gone 7, 11, 11 and 16 in this series. Golden State out-rebounded Atlanta 38 to 37 in a game where Angel Reese had 9.
Angel Reese has pulled down 12, 16, 12 and 9 in the series. She scored 8 in Game 4, her lowest of the Finals, after 30 and 21 in the two games before it. My model has her at about 12.6 rebounds tonight in 34 minutes.
Who has the ball
Jordin Canada had 7, 10, 8 and 4 assists. The 4 came in Game 4, when Atlanta gave it away 18 times. Rhyne Howard scored 19 in Game 4 after 16 in Game 3. Gabby Williams led Golden State with 17 but needed 21 shots to get there (7 of 21), and Veronica Burton had 13 points, 5 assists and 3 steals in 38 minutes.
Allisha Gray is active, which matters. She played 22 minutes in Game 4 and scored 5, after 19 and 18 in the first two games. Brionna Jones is out for the season. My model projects Gray at about 27 minutes, and that is the number I'd watch on the floor.
What the number says
The market has this at a coin flip: Valkyries -118, Dream -102, and Golden State laying 1.5 at home. The Valkyries are 17-5 at home this season, and the Dream are 15-7 on the road. I'm not claiming a side. I'm saying the plays I like are in the total and two player lines, where the pattern is clearer than the winner.
The Board: Don-K's plays for tonight
Game 5 under 150.5 at -110 (1.91) · Kast It: Like
Price from ESPN (DraftKings). Three of four Finals games finished under this number, and Game 4 was 129. The risk: a Game 3 shootout. If it climbs to 151.5 or higher, I like it more. If it falls under 146, I pass.
Jordin Canada over 6.5 assists at -122 (1.82) · Kast It: Love
Best price on Outlier. She has 7, 10, 8 and 4 in the series, and Outlier shows this over hitting in 4 of her last 5 and 7 of her last 10. My model has her near 8 assists in 36 minutes. The risk: Atlanta scores off the glass and not off her passes, or Golden State forces another 18-turnover night. If it goes to 7.5, I pass.
Angel Reese over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists at -115 (1.87) · Kast It: Lean
Best price on Outlier. She has 26, 49, 36 and 20 in the series, so it is two of four, and Outlier shows this over in 3 of her last 5 and 58% this season. My model has her near 33. The risk: Game 4 again, when she scored 8. If it goes to 31.5, I pass.
The total is ESPN's (DraftKings) and the player prices are Outlier's best, read Monday afternoon, so check yours. These are Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Check the injury report and your own book before you play.
Another low-scoring game. Atlanta takes care of the ball this time, Reese and Stokes split the glass, and the total stays under.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.