Game 6: Dream backs to the wall, and the building is ours.
Orange = Don-K's picksTeal = names and things to watch
Here is where we are. Golden State leads the Finals 3-2, and if Atlanta loses tomorrow the season is over. If the Dream win, we get Game 7 on Saturday in Golden State. Tip is 12:30 PM ET Thursday, so lunch just became a game-day meal.
The snapshot
| Valkyries | Dream | |
|---|---|---|
| Series | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Spread | +4.5 | -4.5 |
| Total | 147.5 | 147.5 |
| Tip | 12:30 PM ET | State Farm Arena |
Spread and total from Vegas Insider, Wednesday. Covers had the Dream at -3.5 with a 146.5 total earlier in the day. Books differ and lines move, so check yours.
How the series got here
Golden State took Game 1, 68-64, and Atlanta answered with a 79-65 win in Game 2 and a 97-71 blowout at home in Game 3. Then the Valkyries won Game 4 in Atlanta, 67-62, and Game 5 at home, 64-55. Only one of those five games went over the 147.5 total (Game 3, 168), so this series lives in the 120s and 130s.
What went wrong in Game 5
The Dream shot 19-of-65 (29.2%) and 6-of-26 from three, and they turned it over 17 times to Golden State's 9. Those turnovers became 21 Valkyries points, against 6 for Atlanta off Golden State's. Rhyne Howard was the one bright spot with 20 points on 7-of-15. Angel Reese had 15 rebounds (5 offensive) but scored 7 on 2-of-8, and Naz Hillmon grabbed 11 boards with 2 points.
What went right
Atlanta won the glass with 12 offensive rebounds and 19 second-chance points, and Golden State shot just 39.3% with Gabby Williams at 3-of-14. The Dream lost by nine in a game where they scored 55. That tells me the problem is shot-making and ball security, not effort.
The number says what the market thinks
Vegas Insider has the Dream at -4.5 with a total of 147.5, and Covers puts Atlanta's win probability near 63%. Covers lists no key injuries for either team. It also reports Atlanta's home net rating at +14.9 against +0.4 on the road, and that Reese has pulled down 12 or more rebounds in seven of eight matchups with Golden State.
Don-K's angles for Game 6
| Angle | Where it comes from |
|---|---|
| Under 147.5 total | Under in 4 of 5 Finals games (132, 144, 129 and 119 points; Game 3 went 168) |
| Angel Reese rebounds | 15 in Game 5; Covers has her at 12.6 per game against Golden State |
| Dream spread | The market already has them at about 63%, so the number is priced in |
No Board plays for Game 6 right now. If I add any, they go on the Board. I would rather wait on the line than force one.
Atlanta cleans up the turnovers, gets one more game out of the home crowd and forces Game 7. That is a call, not a Board play.
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