Georgia vs Florida in Atlanta: Baugh carries the Gators, Georgia splits the load.
Crimson = Don-K's picksBlue = names and things to watch
Alright, Kulture Kast, the Cocktail Party comes to Atlanta this year. Georgia is an 11.5-point favorite over Florida, the total is 56.5, and kickoff is 3:30 PM ET. Here is where the touches go and what I like.
The snapshot
| Georgia | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -11.5 | +11.5 |
| Total | 56.5 | 56.5 |
| Implied points | 34.0 | 22.5 |
Spread and total from the Kulture Kast college dashboard, Saturday 10:28 AM ET (DraftKings lines via Covers). Books differ, so check yours.
Florida runs through Baugh
Jadan Baugh is the Florida offense on the ground. My dashboard has him for about 16 carries and 84 rushing yards, with a middle outcome of 75. No other Florida running back projects for more than 4 carries. That is why his touchdown chance sits at 50 percent, the highest of anyone in this game.
Through the air, the targets spread out. Dallas Wilson projects for about 5 targets and Vernell Brown III about 4, with nobody else over 4. That spread is why I like the unders on the Florida receivers.
Georgia splits the backfield three ways
Nate Frazier, Dwight Phillips Jr. and Chauncey Bowens each project for 6 or 7 carries, and Bo Walker adds about 4 more. When the carries are split like that, no single back has a clear path to a big yardage day. Phillips projects for a middle outcome of about 32 rushing yards.
Isiah Canion (leg) is out for Georgia, per Covers. In the passing game, Talyn Taylor leads the Georgia receivers at about 4 targets, and London Humphreys projects for about 2 or 3.
The Board: Don-K's plays for Georgia vs Florida
Jadan Baugh anytime touchdown at 1.73 · Kast It: Love
My model gives Baugh a 50 percent touchdown chance, the best in the game. Best price on Outlier, and it shows him scoring in 9 of his last 10 games and 86 percent of his games this season. The risk: Georgia's defense keeps Florida out of the red zone.
Dallas Wilson under 4.5 receptions at 2.06 · Kast It: Love
My model has Wilson for about 3.5 catches. After I take 5 points off to stay honest, I have the under at about 65 percent. Best price on Outlier, and it shows him under this line in 8 of his last 10. I also like him under 57.5 receiving yards (middle outcome 37.5). The risk: Florida trails and throws more than usual.
Dwight Phillips Jr. under 52.5 rushing yards · Kast It: Love
My model's middle outcome is 32 yards, and I have the under at about 66 percent after the 5-point haircut. Outlier shows him over this number in only 3 of his last 10. Outlier only lists the over, so check your book for the under price. The risk: Georgia builds a big lead and he gets the late carries.
Lean extras
London Humphreys under 26.5 receiving yards (middle outcome 17, about 60 percent after the haircut; Outlier shows the over in only 2 of his last 10). Vernell Brown III under 4.5 receptions (about 3.3 projected catches and about 70 percent after the haircut, but the best price on Outlier is 1.51, so it is expensive). Both are Leans for me today.
Georgia has the deeper roster and three backs to wear Florida down. Baugh keeps Florida in it early, but the Bulldogs cover the 11.5.
Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Lines and injuries change. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.