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We did the homework on five games, one more than usual, so you don't have to sort a 50-game slate. Alabama goes to LSU, Oregon visits Ohio State, Georgia is at Ole Miss, Miami is at Notre Dame, and Texas opens the day at Missouri. Here is where the touches go.
| Game | Kick (ET) | Favorite | Total | Implied points | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas @ Missouri | 12:00 PM | Texas -2.5 | 41.5 | TEX 22.0, MIZ 19.5 | 46°, partly sunny |
| Alabama @ LSU | 3:30 PM | LSU -6 | 52.5 | LSU 29.25, ALA 23.25 | 76° |
| Oregon @ Ohio State | 3:30 PM | Ohio State -7.5 | 44.5 | OSU 26.0, ORE 18.5 | 50°, partly sunny |
| Georgia @ Ole Miss | 7:30 PM | Georgia -3.5 | 56.5 | UGA 30.0, MISS 26.5 | 49°, clear |
| Miami @ Notre Dame | 7:30 PM | Notre Dame -7 | 54.5 | ND 30.75, MIA 23.75 | 39°, partly cloudy |
Spreads and totals are from the Kulture Kast college dashboard, refreshed Saturday 10:43 AM ET. Books differ, so check yours. CBS lists the Texas at Missouri total at 42.5, down from 51.5 at the open, and the spread has moved about three points toward Missouri. Weather is from ESPN, about 9:00 AM ET. Availability comes from the official SEC and Big Ten Friday reports, FanDuel news and ESPN. We have not seen the official ACC report for Miami and Notre Dame, so check it before kickoff.
The total has fallen nine points since it opened, and our numbers agree it is a low-scoring game: we have Texas at 22.0 and Missouri at 19.5. Austin Simmons starts at quarterback for Missouri. Jamal Roberts is the Missouri offense on the ground, about 18 carries and a 56 percent share, with a touchdown chance of 48 percent. Cayden Lee leads Missouri's receivers at 7 targets.
For Texas, Hollywood Smothers is out (SEC report), which leaves Raleek Brown with the biggest share of the carries: we now have him at about 62 rushing yards and a 38 percent touchdown chance. Ryan Wingo (probable) projects for 6 targets. Missouri is also without running back Malae Fonoti.
Dilin Jones carries LSU at about 15 carries and a 44 percent share, with a 51 percent touchdown chance, the second highest in our five games. Alabama's backfield is led by AK Dear (probable) and Daniel Hill. Sam Leavitt projects for about 263 passing yards on about 32 attempts. Rico Scott is Alabama's top target at 6.5 per game, and receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams is probable. Our model has Keelon Russell at quarterback for Alabama, and Thomalla is doubtful. LSU is without receiver Phillip Wright III, and linebacker Whit Weeks is doubtful (SEC report).
Luke Fahey starts at quarterback for Ohio State with Julian Sayin out (FanDuel and the Big Ten report). Bo Jackson has the highest touchdown chance in our five games at 55 percent, on about 17 carries and a 51 percent share. Ja'Kobi Jackson (foot surgery) is out, which leaves the carries with Bo. Jeremiah Smith is the top projected receiver on the slate at 97 yards on average and a 29 percent target share, while receivers Brandon Inniss and Brock Boyd are doubtful. Ohio State defensive back Jay Timmons is off the injury report.
Oregon is without running back Jordon Davison and quarterback Dante Moore (Big Ten report), and receiver Jeremiah McClellan is probable. That leaves Dierre Hill Jr. with the biggest share of Oregon's carries: we have him at about 57 rushing yards and a 27 percent touchdown chance, with Brandon Smith and Da'Jaun Riggs picking up the rest.
Ole Miss is without running back Kewan Lacy, who is out on the SEC's Friday report, so Makhi Frazier takes the lead role at about 11 carries and a 39 percent touchdown chance, up from 33 percent. Shekai Mills-Knight picks up the rest. Georgia splits it between Nate Frazier and Dwight Phillips Jr., with running back Chauncey Bowens probable. Deuce Alexander is Ole Miss's top target at 7.2. Georgia is without inside linebacker AJ Kruah and safety Tyriq Green.
Notre Dame is a seven-point home favorite. Miami is without receiver Malachi Toney, who had ankle surgery and is out several weeks with a possible postseason return (FanDuel, ESPN, Yahoo). He had 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games, so this is a big hole. Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw are the receivers in line for more work. Notre Dame is down linebacker Drayk Bowen, with safety Brauntae Johnson and cornerback DJ McKinney sidelined (ESPN, Nov 5). Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton split the Irish carries at about 11 and 9, and both sit near a 40 percent touchdown chance. Mark Fletcher Jr. leads Miami at about 10 carries.
Our touchdown chance is 48 percent, the highest of anyone in Texas at Missouri, on about 18 carries. The risk: a 41.5 total means few scoring drives.
He ranks fourth of 85 quarterbacks on our passing yards, at about 263 on about 32 attempts. The line sits just above our middle outcome of 260, so this needs Alabama to keep pace.
Alabama's top target at about 6.5 a game. We project about 47 yards with a middle outcome of 42, and his recent hit rate is cold, so this is a volume play and the weakest of the group.
We project 69 yards on about 15 carries, with a middle outcome of 60. Alabama's defense is the matchup. The risk: LSU is the home favorite and could lean on him late.
He ranks first on the slate in receiving yards, at 97 on average. His middle outcome is 86.5, so it needs a big game, and Ohio State starts a backup quarterback.
A 55 percent touchdown chance, the best in our five games, on about 17 carries and a 51 percent share. The risk: Ohio State's backup quarterback could change the red-zone calls.
Our touchdown chance is 39 percent, up from 33 percent with Lacy out. A 56.5 total means plenty of red-zone trips, but Georgia has the better run defense on paper.
We have him at about 11 carries and an under chance of about 57 percent after our shrink. He has cleared this in 8 of his last 10 (Outlier). The risk: Notre Dame leads and runs the clock.
Three of the plays sit close to our middle outcomes. Smith's middle outcome is 86.5 against a 94.5 line, Leavitt's is 260 against 266.5, and Scott's is 42 against 47.5. After our 5-point shrink, the over chance on each is about 40 percent. They are on the Board because the usage is real, but they are ceiling plays, not sure things.
The calls follow our implied points. Check the injury reports again before each kickoff, because the SEC and Big Ten game-day updates and the ACC report can change the picture.
The Desk's ideas, not guarantees. Lines and injuries change. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
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