Game 7. One Night. One Ring.
Crimson = Don-K's picksBlue = names and things to watch
Don-K did the homework. Six games, 3-3, and it comes down to one night in the Bay. Atlanta took Game 6 at home, 80-69, to force this, and every game in this series has been decided by defense. Five of six finals stayed under 145 combined points. Here's what I'm watching tonight.
The snapshot
| Dream | Valkyries | |
|---|---|---|
| Series | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Spread | +1.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 143.5 | 143.5 |
| Implied points | 71.0 | 72.5 |
| Our expected points | 76.8 | 72.9 |
| Finals scoring avg | 72.8 | 69.0 |
Line and total from the Kulture Kast WNBA dashboard (Saturday 11:09 AM ET). The road team has won 3 of the 6 games: Atlanta took Game 2 out west, and Golden State won Games 4 and 5. Prices are the best on Outlier Saturday morning. Books differ, so check yours.
Who's out, and who picks up the volume
Valkyries: Iliana Rupert is out for the season. Dream: Te-Hina Paopao is questionable after sitting out Game 6. Status from Covers as of 11:09 AM ET.
The minutes story is the rotation, not injuries. Both coaches have shortened their benches. Veronica Burton played 38, 37 and 36 minutes the last three games, up from about 29 in the regular season. Rhyne Howard played 38 in Game 6.
The Board: Don-K's plays for Game 7
Rhyne Howard over 14.5 points at 1.83 · Kast It: Love
Last game: 21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists in 38 minutes. Finals: 12, 5, 16, 19, 20, 21. She's climbed every game since Game 2 and cleared this line four straight. The model has her at 19 points on 37-plus minutes.
Jordin Canada over 9.5 points at 1.77 · Kast It: Like
Last game: 10 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists in 34 minutes. Finals: 8, 13, 10, 10, 12, 10. Five of six in the Finals, and she's run the offense every night. A 9.5 asks her to do what she's already doing.
Angel Reese over 14.5 points at 1.77 · Kast It: Love
Last game: 15 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists in 35 minutes. Finals: 14, 30, 21, 8, 7, 15. Games 4 and 5 were rough, but she bounced back in Game 6 with 15 and 14 boards. The model has her at 18, and the putbacks alone give her a floor.
Veronica Burton over 18.5 points + rebounds + assists at 1.93 · Kast It: Love
Last game: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists in 36 minutes. Last 3 games: 21, 24 and 18 PRA. Burton has gone from 29 regular-season minutes to almost 37 in this series, and the PRA has followed. Two of the last three cleared this line and the third missed by half a point.
Atlanta takes the ring on the road. It's a Dream game, so check the number objectively.
Don-K's ideas, not guarantees. Lines and injuries change. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.