Crimson = The Desk's picksBlue = names and things to watch
We did the homework on three games today: a rain-soaked NFC South fight in Tampa, the biggest total on the board in Buffalo, and a low-scoring AFC West game in Denver. Same story in all three: injuries are pushing the ball to the running backs.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Line | Total | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ Bucs | 1:00 PM | TB -2.5 | 43.5 | ~80°F, 75% chance of rain |
| Ravens @ Bills | 1:00 PM | BUF -3 | 54.5 | ~65°F, dry |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | 4:25 PM | KC -1.5 | 40.5 | ~55°F, 35% chance of rain |
Lines from CBS Sports, read about 11:20 AM ET. Model numbers from the Kulture Kast NFL dashboard (9:30 AM ET run). Prices are the best on Outlier at about 11:28 AM ET. Books differ, so check yours.
Who's out: running back Brian Robinson (hamstring), linebacker Divine Deablo (forearm) and nickel back Billy Bowman Jr. (hamstring) for Atlanta, and receiver Emeka Egbuka for Tampa. Cornerback Avieon Terrell (ATL) is questionable.
Who picks up the volume: Bijan Robinson has the Atlanta backfield to himself. Brian Robinson's 53 carries and 4 touchdowns have nowhere else to go, and Bijan already has 131 carries and 704 yards. In Tampa, Egbuka's team-high 49 targets get split among Chris Godwin Jr. (34), Cade Otton (30) and Ted Hurst III (23).
Our chance is 48.5 percent (fair price 2.06). He has scored in 3 of 7 games this year, but his red-zone work grows with Brian Robinson out.
Our chance is 57.7 percent, with a middle outcome of 84.3 yards. Outlier shows him over this line in 57 percent of his games this season. The risk: Atlanta falls behind and throws.
Our chance is 58.7 percent after we take 5 points off unders to stay honest, with a middle outcome of 67.3. Outlier shows the under in 7 of his last 10. The risk: a big play in a game Atlanta has to chase.
Our chance is 42.6 percent (fair price 2.35). He has 27 red-zone touches, and Atlanta's linebacker room is short-handed.
The line has Tampa by 2.5, so check the number objectively, but we're riding with ATL to pull it off.
Who's out: free safety Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL). Receiver DJ Moore and tight end Dalton Kincaid (BUF) are active after being listed questionable. Big news for Baltimore: Lamar Jackson returns from a three-game absence (ankle).
Our chance is 60.4 percent (fair price 1.65). He has scored in 5 of 7 games.
Our chance is 50.1 percent (fair price 2.00). He has scored in 5 of 6 games.
Our chance is 58.0 percent after the 5-point haircut, with a middle outcome of 31.4. Outlier shows the under in 7 of his last 10. The risk: a broken play or two in a shootout.
Buffalo has the better quarterback in a game built for points, and Baltimore is missing its free safety.
Who's out: strong safety Talanoa Hufanga and running back RJ Harvey (DEN). Kansas City is also without cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed (knee, placed on IR) and Mansoor Delane (shoulder). Receiver Jaylen Waddle (DEN) is questionable.
Our chance is 58.2 percent (fair price 1.72). He has scored in 4 of 6 games.
Conflict flagged: Walker's rushing line is 89.5. Our middle outcome is 77.4, but Outlier shows him over it in 7 of his last 10. No stamp, so we pass on the yardage.
Two defenses that keep it close. Walker is the difference.
The best touchdown chance on the whole slate at 61.7 percent (fair price 1.62). He has scored in 6 of 7 games, and Dallas has the day's highest implied total at 30.75 points.
Our chance is 56.8 percent (fair price 1.76). He has scored in 5 of 6 games, with 43 red-zone touches.
The Desk's ideas, not guarantees. Lines and injuries change. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
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See Kast KlubIdeas are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not guarantees. Lines and injuries change, so check them before you play. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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