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The NFL is in Madrid this morning. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite over Atlanta at the Santiago Bernabéu, with a 9:30 AM ET kickoff. The Falcons are without Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring), which puts Bijan Robinson on track for the lead role, and the Bengals are without safety Kyle Dugger.
| Game | Kick (ET) | Line | Total | Implied points | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals @ Falcons | 9:30 AM | CIN -3 | 52.5 | CIN 27.75, ATL 24.75 | CIN -180, ATL +150 |
Line from DraftKings via ESPN, read about 8 AM ET. Cincinnati is 5-2 and Atlanta is 3-5. Model numbers come from the Kulture Kast NFL dashboard (Sunday 8:03 AM ET run), and prop lines are from Outlier, read about 8:20 AM ET. Because it is Atlanta, check the number objectively.
Who's out: for Atlanta, tackle Cameron Williams, running back Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) and Z. Branch. Collins, Abdullah, Pearce Jr. and Deablo are questionable. For Cincinnati, safety Kyle Dugger is out and C. Johnson is questionable. Injuries come from the NFL.com injury report and ESPN as of about 8:20 AM ET. We have not seen the official inactives, which come about 90 minutes before kickoff. We have not confirmed the weather or the roof at the stadium.
Our middle outcome is 58 yards, with a 60 percent chance to clear 49.5, and he ranks 12th on the slate in our over model. The risk is game script if Cincinnati leads early.
We project about 5.3 targets, and our chance to clear 3.5 is 63 percent before our early-season shrink. He ranks 19th on the slate.
He has about 1.4 expected targets and a median of 1 reception. Our under chance is 71 percent, 66 after our 5-point shrink, and his median is well below the line.
He is Atlanta's top target at about 8.2 a game, with Z. Branch out. Cincinnati ranks 22nd against receptions. Our own chance to clear 5.5 is 42 percent, below a coin flip, so the stamp comes from the matchup and not from our number. Check the number objectively.
Bijan Robinson is the player to watch in Atlanta. We project 19.8 carries and 4.4 targets, with 98 mean rushing yards (median 84) and about 3.5 receptions. Outlier has his rushing yards at 97.5 to 99.5, so the market is close to our mean.
Our median is 84 yards, and our chance to stay under 97.5 is 66 percent, about 61 after our shrink. That would be a Like, but we drop it one tier to a Lean because Brian Robinson Jr. is out and Bijan could get more touches than usual. It is an extra, not a pick, and the touches are the risk.
We did not screen props outside the players featured here, and we are not stamping Ja'Marr Chase's receiving yards at 74.5 because it sits at our median, which is a coin flip.
The dashboard has Cincinnati at 27.75 and Atlanta at 24.75 implied points, so we land close to that with the better team on the road. Check the official inactives and your book's number before you play.
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