Crimson = The Desk's picksBlue = names and things to watch
Three games tonight after the Celtics and Magic tip things off. The big news is in San Francisco: Golden State is resting Stephen Curry and Draymond Green against the Clippers. Indiana is still thin at guard, and Toronto is without Kawhi Leonard.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nets @ Pacers | 5:00 PM | IND -3.5 | 229.5 |
| Clippers @ Warriors | 8:30 PM | GS -2.5 | 220.5 |
| Raptors @ Lakers | 9:00 PM | LAL -2.5 | 224.5 |
Lines from CBS Sports, read about 4:27 PM ET. Model numbers from the Kulture Kast NBA dashboard (4:26 PM ET run). Prices are the best on Outlier at about 4:40 PM ET, and hit rates are Outlier's. Books differ, so check yours.
Who's out: Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell (both hamstring) and Ivica Zubac (ankle) for Indiana, and guards Mikel Brown Jr. (rest) and Egor Demin (leg) plus forward Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder) for Brooklyn. Obi Toppin (back) is a game-time decision, and Aaron Nesmith is probable.
Our chance is 60.7 percent after we take 5 points off unders to stay honest. Outlier shows the under in 8 of his last 10. The risk: Indiana's guard shortage pushes even more shots his way.
Brooklyn is 0-5 and short two guards of its own. Indiana covers at home.
Who's out: Stephen Curry and Draymond Green (rest), plus Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody for Golden State. The Clippers are without Bradley Beal, Max Strus and Brandon Ingram. Gui Santos (GS) is probable.
Our chance is 64.8 percent after the 5-point haircut. Outlier shows the under in 7 of his last 10. The risk: with Golden State short-handed, the Clippers lean on him more than usual.
Our chance is 59.5 percent, with a middle outcome of 6.3 points. Outlier shows the under in 9 of his last 10.
The line still has Golden State by 2.5, but without Curry and Draymond we'll take the Clippers.
Who's out: Kawhi Leonard (knee) and Nate Bittle (foot) for Toronto, and Adou Thiero (knee) for the Lakers. Ziaire Williams (LAL, foot) is a game-time decision.
Our chance is 64.7 percent. The risk: a blowout either way cuts his minutes.
Our chance is 73.0 percent if he plays his usual 27 minutes, and Outlier shows the over in 9 of his last 10. He's a game-time decision, so check he's active before you play.
Luka at home against a Raptors team without Kawhi.
Conflicts flagged: our model is well under the lines on Scottie Barnes (23.5), Nolan Traore (12.5) and Brandon Williams (14.5), but their recent games or tonight's injuries point the other way. No stamp, so we pass.
The Desk's ideas, not guarantees. Lines and injuries change. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
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