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Baltimore opened this game as a 3-point favorite. With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out, Joe Fagnano is set to make his first career NFL start, and the Ravens are now a 9.5 to 10-point underdog at home. The total fell from 48.5 to 39.5.
| Game | Kick (ET) | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Ravens | 8:15 PM | JAX -9.5 to -10 | 39.5 |
Line from CBS Sports, read about 12:20 PM ET (moneyline Jaguars -549, Ravens +425). Model numbers come from the Kulture Kast NFL dashboard (10:49 AM ET run), and hit rates and prices are Outlier's, read late this morning.
Who's out: quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley for Baltimore, and safety Jaylinn Hawkins. Cornerback Nate Wiggins is questionable. For Jacksonville, running back Bhayshul Tuten (ankle, foot) is questionable after not practicing, receiver Jakobi Meyers is limited, and defensive end Travon Walker is questionable. In the secondary, Eric Murray did not practice and Antonio Johnson and Jarrian Jones were limited. These come from morning reports, so check the official inactives about 6:45 PM ET.
Our numbers have Fagnano at about 28 attempts and a 176-yard median, and Trevor Lawrence at about 28 attempts and a 220-yard median. Baltimore's implied total is 14.75 points to Jacksonville's 24.75. Weather: Baltimore had light rain and 73 degrees at midday, with a 40 percent chance of rain today. We will confirm the 8:15 PM forecast before kickoff.
Our middle outcome is 63 yards, and he has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10 (Outlier). The risk: a first-time starter at quarterback. Best price read: 1.93 on Outlier.
Our chance is 46 percent, the best on the slate. We stamp him a Like because Outlier has his rushing-TD market at 40 percent over his last 5 and 60 percent over his last 10, and Baltimore may trail.
These are thinner. Each fits Outlier's hit rates better than it fits our model, so treat them as extras, not picks.
Over in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10 (Outlier). Our chance is 54 percent before our early-season shrink, about 49 percent after it. Best price 1.70.
Over in 4 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10 (Outlier), at a best price of 1.65. The dashboard has no passing-touchdown model, so our own rough estimate from Jacksonville's expected touchdowns is about 47 percent after the shrink, below the market's roughly 56 percent.
Over in 4 of his last 5 and 6 of his last 10 (Outlier). Our chance is 53 percent before the shrink, about 48 percent after it.
We are passing on Parker Washington over 63.5 receiving yards (our chance 31 percent), Brenton Strange over 35.5 (46 percent), Jakobi Meyers over 39.5 (41 percent, and limited in practice) and Trevor Lawrence over 249.5 passing yards (34 percent). Tuten is questionable, so we skip him.
Jacksonville has the better quarterback situation and the Ravens have a first-time starter, but a 10-point spread on a 39.5 total leaves little room. Prices from Outlier were read this morning and will move, so check your book.
The Desk's ideas, not guarantees. Lines and injuries change. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
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