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Both frontcourt stars are out in Wizards at Hawks. Anthony Davis and Jalen Johnson were listed questionable earlier today, and the official 5:30 PM ET report has each of them out with an ankle sprain. Atlanta is a 7.5-point favorite at home with a total of 228.5.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards @ Hawks | 7:00 PM | ATL -7.5 | 228.5 |
| Celtics @ Hornets | 7:00 PM | BOS -10.5 | 208.5 |
| 76ers @ Cavaliers | 7:30 PM | PHI -2.5 | 231.5 |
| Timberwolves @ Pelicans | 8:00 PM | MIN -3.5 | 230.5 |
| Thunder @ Grizzlies | 8:00 PM | OKC -4.5 | 223.5 |
| Raptors @ Bucks | 8:00 PM | TOR -4.5 | 229.5 |
| Jazz @ Mavericks | 8:00 PM | DAL -7.5 | 226.5 |
| Trail Blazers @ Lakers | 10:00 PM | LAL -3.5 | 231.5 |
| Spurs @ Kings | 10:00 PM | SA -17.5 | 231.5 |
Lines from CBS Sports, read about 5:20 PM ET. Model numbers come from the Kulture Kast NBA dashboard (5:27 PM ET run) and its "if a player sits" file. Injuries are from the official NBA report of 5:30 PM ET.
Who's out: for Washington, Anthony Davis (ankle sprain), Reece Beekman (AC joint), Justin Champagnie (foot surgery), Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Jamir Watkins. For Atlanta, Jalen Johnson (ankle sprain), Jock Landale (hip), Mouhamed Gueye (foot fracture), Henri Veesaar (knee), Keshon Gilbert and Asa Newell.
These teams played Wednesday in Washington, and Atlanta won 120-105. Davis had 26 points and 10 rebounds in that game, and Trae Young had 18 points and 6 assists against his former team. Tonight each team loses its top forward, and our model spreads those minutes across the rotation.
| Team | Player | Minutes | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | Trae Young | 34.7 to 35.8 | 22.8 to 23.5 |
| Washington | Kyshawn George | 31.9 to 33.0 | 15.4 to 15.9 |
| Washington | AJ Dybantsa | 30.0 to 31.1 | 15.7 to 16.3 |
| Washington | Bilal Coulibaly | 26.1 to 27.0 | 11.1 to 11.5 |
| Washington | Alex Sarr | 24.4 to 25.2 | 13.0 to 13.4 |
| Atlanta | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 30.0 to 31.1 | 18.0 to 18.6 |
| Atlanta | Onyeka Okongwu | 28.9 to 29.9 | 13.1 to 13.5 |
| Atlanta | Dyson Daniels | 29.2 to 30.2 | 10.5 to 10.9 |
| Atlanta | CJ McCollum | 26.3 to 27.2 | 16.1 to 16.7 |
Each row is the dashboard's number with that team's star removed: Davis for Washington and Johnson for Atlanta. Onyeka Okongwu gains the most in rebounds, about 0.3, and Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George about 0.2 each, so no one player inherits Davis's 10.8 projected rebounds or Johnson's 8.8.
Our team numbers have Atlanta at 118.0 and Washington at 110.5. This is a Hawks game, so check the number objectively.
Five plays from the other games, in tip order. Season and last-5 numbers are from the dashboard, and our chances are after our early-season shrink of about 5 points.
Jaylen Brown averages 32.5 this season and 31.8 over his last five. We project 38.9 in about 36 minutes, and our chance is about 78 percent. Philadelphia is a 2.5-point favorite, so the game should stay close. The risk: Cleveland has Jarrett Allen, Tyrese Proctor and Peyton Watson listed questionable, which could change the matchup.
Saddiq Bey averages 16.4 points and 16.8 over his last five, and we project 15.0 in about 26 minutes. Our chance is about 60 percent. The risk: he plays off the bench, so a lopsided game cuts his minutes.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 over his last five, and we project 3.9. Our chance of the under is about 59 percent. The risk: Oklahoma City is missing Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams, so more rebounds could come his way.
Lauri Markkanen averages 17.1 points and 17.2 over his last five, and we project 20.3. Our chance of the under is about 53 percent, which makes this thin. Kyrie Irving is listed probable for Dallas.
Domantas Sabonis averages 36.1 and 32.0 over his last five, and we project 37.7 in about 35 minutes. Our chance is about 65 percent. The risk: San Antonio is a 17.5-point favorite, and a big lead could cut his minutes.
Dyson Daniels under 12.5 points came off tonight's shortlist. With Johnson out his minutes rise from 29.2 to 30.2, and our chance of the under falls to about 57 percent, which a minutes pickup drops below Lean.
Luka Doncic has the highest projection on the night, 49.0 points + rebounds + assists, in Trail Blazers at Lakers, where Portland is without Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe. In Timberwolves at Pelicans, Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo and Terrence Shannon Jr. are out for Minnesota, and LaMelo Ball projects at 19.0 points and 6.3 assists. Kawhi Leonard is out for Toronto in Raptors at Bucks, with Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley listed questionable.
The Desk's ideas, not guarantees. Lines and injuries change. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
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